Time Trending Analysis

In the 2017 reappraisal, the Jefferson County Assessor's Office used Sales Ratio and Multiple Regression Analyses for the determination of market trends. Paired sales were not used due to the number of fix and flip scenarios which changed the inventory However, a major component influencing value were remodels to homes. For those scenarios, the most current sale was typically used for analysis. The two-year time frame (2015 to 2017) showed a continued upward trend for all residential properties. the total number of qualified sales was 23,387, a 30.9 % increase from the 17,867 in 2015.

There was minimal evidence of foreclosure on lender-owned sales. New homes were removed from the time trend analysis so that only properties used in the prior reappraisal were considered for the ratio study New home sales were included in the overall valuation analysis. the analysis indicated different results by property subclasses and location. See the table below for specific adjustment time periods and amounts. Time trend total adjustments ranged from 12% to 48% - and varied by property type and economic area.  

The Single Family Time-Trend Study Graph (PDF) represents the 24-month time frame. The red line is the regression line and its “best fit” position.  The black circles are the sales ratio for each month. July 2014 is Month 1; December 2014 is Month 6; June 2015 is Month 12; and June 2016 is Month 24.